As 2023 draws to a close, we reflect on the many tumultuous events of the year: from elevated inflation leading the Fed’s rate cycle, to downstream effects in the banking sector, new international collaborations, and continuing conflict in the Middle East. Read on for 2023 Year in Review.
2023 Year in Review:
The Fed’s Rate Cycle
There were four rate increases in 2023, occurring at the February, March, May, and July FOMC meetings. Meanwhile, with the rate of inflation cooling, rates were held steady since September at 5.25% – 5.50%. Widespread anticipation that the Fed plans to reduce rates marked a turning point, causing gold to spike up to $2,150 in trading, and closed at an all-time high of $2,072 in early December. Future rate cuts will likely continue to support the price of gold.
Banking Concerns
In the spring of 2023, rising interest rates showed downstream effects in the banking sector. Consequently, the resale value of older long term bonds had dipped. Especially compared to newer, higher yielding bonds- causing difficulties in liquidity for several banks. This uncertainty quickly boosted the price of gold over the $2,000 mark. The Fed quickly intervened with an emergency lending program helping to stabilize smaller banks.
Middle East Conflict
The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza erupted on October 7, and appears to be far from a conclusion; claiming the lives of over 20,000 and displacing millions. Significantly, growing conflict in the Middle East has increased investor demand for precious metals. Its buoying gold prices over the $2,000 mark once again.
BRICS+
There is a growing possibility that BRICS could develop a new gold-backed currency in an effort to reduce their reliance on the US Dollar. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) announced in August that they will be joined in 2024 by Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. BRICS functions as an informal organization with the vision of achieving a “restructured global political, economic and financial architecture that reflects the contemporary world”. Skeptics say this new gold-backed currency initiative would face many hurdles in implementation and may be unlikely to occur. Long term, if this does happen to any significant degree, a new BRICS common currency would likely erode the dominance of the US Dollar and provide support to gold prices.